IMF, 'supply chain disruption' US growth rate 1%p ↓... China down 0.1%p

On the 12th (local time), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its economic growth forecast for the United States and China, called the two major countries (G2), for this year.

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global economic growth forecast for this year by 0.1 percentage point from 6.0% in July to 5.9% in its 'World Economic Outlook' report released today during the IMF and World Bank (WB) annual meeting.

    One of the most noteworthy points is that the forecasts of the US and China, which are also called the growth engines of the global economy, have declined concurrently.

    The decline in the US was particularly noticeable. The US growth forecast for this year is 6.0%, a whopping 1.0 percentage point lower than the July forecast. This is the largest drop among the G7 countries.

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) explained that the result was a reflection of a massive inventory decline in the second quarter and subsequent supply chain disruption and slowing consumption.

    This is similar to that of global investment firm Goldman Sachs, which slightly lowered its forecast for the US from 5.7% to 5.6% on the 10th due to the prospect of a delayed consumption recovery.

    Although it has entered the evolutionary phase, it can be seen that uncertainties remain in the future considering the re-spreading of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), high inflation, and supply shortages such as semiconductors.

    Moreover, the IMF explained that this forecast is based on the assumption that the US President Joe Biden's stimulus budget, worth $4 trillion, will pass Congress, so if the size of the budget decreases, the growth rate may be further downgraded, the IMF explained.

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the U.S. growth rate for next year by 0.3 percentage points to 5.2%. The US grew 3.4% last year.

China's growth forecast for this year was lowered by 0.1 percentage point to 8.0%. Next year, growth of 5.6% is expected, down 0.1 percentage point. China grew 2.3% last year despite the pandemic.

    The IMF cited the fact that public investment fell sharply than expected as the reason for lowering the growth rate slightly.

    "The default or rebalancing of large-scale and disorderly corporate debt, for example in China's asset sector, could have far-reaching repercussions," he said.

    Foreign media also linked this to the China Hengda (Evergrande) group crisis in China, which is suffering from a liquidity crisis.

    Analysts say China is facing a painful situation from weak real estate and the shock of a surge in coal prices and shortages, AFP said.

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also warned that escalating trade and technology tensions between the US and China since the Trump administration could act as another obstacle to the economic recovery path and negatively affect investment and productivity.

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed out that it is necessary to resolve trade tensions and reverse trade restrictions imposed in 2018-2019, as if high trade tariffs between the US and China were in mind.